Compound Interest and Exponential Population Growth

 The greatest discovery of the century?

Mere linear growth

 Growth remained linear until the end of the middle ages. Human populations recovered from the bubonic plague in less than a century. Human populations reached a billion about 1800, 2 billion about 1930, 3 billion about 1960. All the deaths in WW2 barely altered the growth curve. We reached 4 billion about 1975.

The population recently exceeded 6 billion.

The rule of 70: 70/% growth rate=doubling time, 70/doubling time=% growth rate

Human population growth=1.47%/annum

 

 Is this growth rate a problem? Why? Why not?

Food production has risen also.

The number of malnourished people has increased.

The proportion of people that are malnourished has decreased.

The freshwater supply is not increasing.

 

Economics: what is economic growth? It is an increase in the through flow of goods and services. GDP

Per capita gdp

Developed Countries, developing countries and the wealth gap.

 

Comparisons of developed and undeveloped Countries From UN and Populations Reference Bureau.

Comparison

Developed

Undeveloped

Pop.

1.2 Billion

4.7 Billion

Pop. Growth rate

0.1%

1.8%

% worlds resources used

88

12

Avg. GNP/person

$19,310

$1,120

 

 

Resources and Pollution

 

 What is a resource? A resource is anything we get from the physical environment.

Renewable Resources

Potentially renewable resources

Sustained Yield

Garrett Hardin and "The Tragedy of the Commons"

Non-renewable Resources

Recycling, and Reuse

Pollution: What is it?

Point source

Non-point source

Degradeable/nondegradeable

 

The Solutions to Pollution

 

Prevention

Cleanup

 

Population*Affluence*Technology=Impact (Ehrlich and Holdren)

Is our lifestyle sustainable?

Should we change?

Can we change?